"(...) Some years later, Amos and his students Tom Gilovich and Robert Vallone caused a stir with their study of misperceptions and randomness in basketball. The "fact" that players occasionally acquire a hot hand is generally accepted by players, coaches, and fans. The inference is irrestible: a player sinks three or four times in a row and you cannot help formig the casual judgement that the player is now hot, with a temporarily increased propensity to score. Players on both teams adapt to this judgement - teammates are more likely to pass to the hot scorer and the defense is more likely to double-team.
Analysis of thousands of sequences of shots led to a disappointing conclusion: there is no such thing as a hot hand in professional basketball, either in shooting from the foeld or scoring from the foul line.
Of course, some players are more accurate than others, but the sequence of successes and missed shots satisfies all tests of randomness. The hot hand is entirely in the eye of the beholders, who are consistenly too quick to perceive order and casuality in randomness. Te hot hand is a massive and widespread cognitive illusion.
The public reaction to this research is part of the story. The finding was picked up by the press because of its surprising conclusion, and the general response was disbelief.
When the celebrated coach of Boston Celtics, Red Auerbach, heard of Gilovich and his study, he responded, "Who is this guy? So he makes a study. I couldn't care less."
The tendency to see patterns in randomness is overwhelming - certainly more impressive than a guy making a study. (...)" DANIEL KAHNEMAN prémio Nobel de Economia e professor catedrático de Psicologia na Universidade de Princeton
(Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow, Penguin Books, London, 2011)
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